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Raw materials to win in emerging economies

Raw materials to win in emerging economies

A worker at a copper factory in Linqing, Shandong province. Copper climbed to a record $10,160 a ton on Monday. Ouyang Zubing / For China Daily

Commodities will beat stocks in China, Brazil and other emerging economies this year as inflationary pressure curbs equity gains, said Societe Generale (SG).

Growth of raw-material consumption in emerging economies led by China will be sustained even as prices advance, said SG Commodity Strategist Jeremy Friesen.

The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 14 percent last year as the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return climbed 17 percent.

"Prices of commodities will have to go up to rationalize the investments to produce commodities as well as consumption," Friesen said on Monday from Hong Kong. "Corporates are going to have to deal with how to be profitable while still facing higher costs."

Investors have pulled money from funds tracking developing-nation stocks because of concern about stock valuations and inflationary pressure, according to EPFR Global, a US data provider.

Outflows totaled $7 billion from all emerging-market equity funds during the week ended Feb 2, the most in three years, and energy and commodity-related funds attracted more investment, it said.

China`s consumer prices advanced 3.3 percent last year, breaching a government target of 3 percent. The January rate may have quickened to 5.4 percent, according to the median estimate of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, from 4.6 percent in December. Inflation in Indonesia was 7.02 percent last month, a 21-month high, the Central Bureau of Statistics said.

Copper climbed to a record $10,160 a ton on Monday, boosted by expanding manufacturing activity in China and the United States, the top consumers. Cotton advanced to an all-time high last week and palladium, used in autocatalysts, rose to the highest level since 2001.

The advance in commodity prices will be sustained "if policymakers continue to lean toward the stimulant side, which I believe they will continue to do," Friesen said, referring to low interest rates and measures to boost growth.

 
Date:2011-2-9 10:17:35     
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